deal almost 100% priced-in

strait still closed

70$ is average oil price

almost pre-war lvl

Some of the oil facilities have been damaged

Iran strikes Koweit and Bahrein in response to US strikes.

Israel-Hezbollah war continues

We went from a lot of optimism with the deal fully priced in (essentially back to pre-war levels) to now questioning the solidity of the deal after this weekend's strikes. USOIL had already caught my eye before this weekend's events because of how low the price already was (at pre-war levels), despite the situation still not being back to normal. There are multiple key levels, such as the Iran war gap (dotted line), the $80 level, two highs around $78, and a gap from about $81 to $84. With a decent stop-loss, the R:R looked great. Now, I will be watching where we open this evening and seeing if a setup makes sense on this asset.

7-week losing streak

Just hit 4000$ psychological lvl

The bulk of the movement from the pricing-in of Warsh’s more restrictive than anticipated monetary policy was already done

Oil was already around pre-war lvl, lifting pressure off inflation

Oil will most likely open higher, putting pressure on inflation, reinforcing Warsh’s more restrictive approach.

If the price goes down and geopolitical tensions eventually de-escalate, a pullback could interest me.

High put-to-call ratio generally indicates a good long-term entry point.

High VIX generally indicates a good long-term entry point