Economic Calendar

Last Week:

Monday July 06:

Tuesday July 07:

Wednesday July 08:

Thursday July 09:

Friday July 10:

This Week:

Tuesday July 14:

Wednesday July 15:

Thursday July 16:

Iran War development

Monday July 06:

Tuesday July 07:

Wednesday July 08:

Trump: "To me, I think it's over. I don't want to deal with them...They’re scum. They’re sick people.”

Thursday July 09:

Friday July 10:

Summary:

Scenarios

Escalation

De-escalation

Charts I am Watching This Week

Gold 1D (CPI weaker than expected)

Here is the idea:

No escalation this week → oil down → inflation goes down

CPI comes out weaker than expected → fed less hawkish → U.S. yields less attractive to investors → gold could become attractive again

GBPUSD 4H & 1/DXY (CPI Stronger than expected & Yields higher)

Here is the idea:

if we see a CPI stronger than expected, it would reinforce the hawkish stance of the fed, therefore DXY and U.S. yields should gain strength. If that scenario were to materialize and DXY breaks to the upside (which in this chart would be to the downside because it is 1/DXY) I dont see any reason why GBPUSD would not go down.

In the technical analysis. We have divergence on 4h. I do not consider MA as resistance or support because we are essentially in a range. I would like price to retest the trend line as Tuesday CPI and range on it until Tuesday CPI Data, which in this scenario were CPI comes out stronger than expected would be the catalysis for a Break Out to the downside.