Monday August 03:
ISM Manufacturing PMI - stronger than expected accelerating
Tuesday August 04:
JOLTS as expected
Wednesday August 05:
ISM Services PMI - as expected
Thursday August 06:
Friday August 07:
NFP way weaker than expected
Unemployment rate better than expected
Monday August 10:
Tuesday August 11:
Wednesday August 12:
USD CPI
Thursday August 13:
USD PPI
Friday August 14:
Monday August 03:
No strikes → Oil -5%
Tuesday August 04:
Wednesday August 05:
Thursday August 06:
Reuters: “””Oil settles up $3 as Iran reviews bill to ban US, Israeli vessels from Hormuz”””
Friday August 07:
Saturday August 08:
Diplomats: “Deal is nearly done.”
Military reality: another vessel gets hit.
Sunday August 09:
Such open and violent market reaction came from something else which Marsh said, and it’s worth repeating here because it amounts to a subtle confession of what we’ve been warning with blunt consistency, namely that the Fed will eventually lose control of the bond market.
Specifically, and at the beginning of the Warsh press conference, Warsh was directly asked why nine FOMC members (Warsh among them) did not vote to raise rates.
His response was nothing short of astounding when one reads between the lines:
“Rates are higher today than they were 42 days ago. Markets have made decisions because we stepped back in part from trying to influence those. Market judgements have moved up on what nominal rates are across the Treasury curve… Markets are reacting in real time. Monetary policy matters not by just what we say, or even what we do…These prices we see in financial markets is one of the many ways in which [monetary policy] effects the real economy”
Translated into real-speak, what Marsh really said boils down to this: “Rates are rising without the Fed having to raise them because the markets no longer trust our IOUs and are setting a risk premium of their own, which is outside our control.”
This is scary. But it’s also no surprise at all. “””
USOIL 1D
Gold 1D
If we retrace to the downside until Wednesday CPI → CPI weaker than expected
SPX 1D
SPX has already surged a lot last week (+3.6%). I am interested in taking a position only if creates a correction to ~previous ATH (7620$).
NQ 1D
If we retrace to the downside until Wednesday CPI → CPI weaker than expected.
Still has ~3.5% to the upside before ATH.
I believe it will follow SPX (which is already at new ATHs)
NQ 4H
DXY 1D
We are at an interesting level on DXY. CPI will determine whether we breakout to the downside.
BTCUSD 1D
I don't trade crypto. However, I analyzed this asset a lot, and I have some personal tools that I have built specifically for this pair, and they indicate that since June 3, 2026, we have been in a buy-level zone. The reason I haven't shared it before and only now is simply because the technicals weren't very interesting. I am not calling the bottom yet since, from my historical analysis, we might still have 3–6 months before making the bottom, but understand that this is from a long-term investment perspective (~3 years): I would not care if it had another leg to the downside because I will hold this position for multiple years.
