Oil — Long
Macro thesis
Demand
Supply constraints
Geopolitical risk premium not fully priced out
Technical Discount:
Almost back to pre-war lvl (while Hormuz only partially open)
$70 is a long-term average
4h RSI divergence + lvl 36
July 02 2026
1W
1D
July 06 2026:
1D
4h
Written July 12 2026
July 07 2026:
Took 33% my position off at 1.42RR (+0.46R). I wanted to take something off because I believed there was significant probability that a Trump tweet pushed oil prices down and I end up at BE while I was at +1.42 RR in open profit)
Took 33% my position off at 2.4RR (+0.79R). At that point, price was already at my target if there hasn't been geopolitical tension. Although I acknowledged risk of escalation in the middle, seeing the risk-reward dynamic, I simply couldn't let 66% of my position at 2.4RR, risking loosing this open profit if Trump were to come out and tweet something about negotiations. I thought that moving my SL around the small correction where I first exited 33% out wasn't the best choice considering the volatility and that price could spike down on a Trump’s Tweet and then reverse 1hour later if Trump contradicts himself (which quite frankly has happened very often since the beginning of the war). Therefore, considering my option I took out another 33%, securing profit while also keeping exposed if things were to escalate in the middle east.
July 08 2026:
Earlier in the morning, oil prices jumped with this news:
In the afternoon we had this news:
Took the last 33% my position off at 3.51RR (+1.15R). Things were not really escalating in the middle east, and if it were to really escalate it would have done it in a shorter time period. Therefore I assume that we were most likely going to have a pause and negotiation between US and Iran. In the afternoon we had Trump saying that he doe not think the war will start again, at that point I decided to fully exit the trade.
On my Oanda Trading Account it resulted in a +2.6RR trade
