PPI expectations:
| Indicator | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core PPI m/m | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| PPI m/m | 0.2% | -0.3% |
Context:
If PPI higher than expected:
USDCAD:
Yesterday (CPI) I was watching USDCAD as it has been particularly weak in the last 2 weeks. However, even though CPI printed exactly as expected yesterday, USDCAD already started moving higher. My trade idea was simply to take the rebound due to higher than expected inflation data on USDCAD that, in my opinion, is a bit oversold. Since it already displaced higher since yesterday, it is not a trade that I am considering anymore. Here was my analysis:
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USDCAD 1D
If PPI as expected/mixed:
I would be willing to enter this long NQ. However, I want to see momentum to the upside, otherwise I will probably close the trade around breakeven, because the fact that it tried to Break out and lost momentum increases the risk of pulling back and start a bigger correction.
If PPI lower than expected:
Exactly the same as “If PPI as expected/mixed” scenario, but lower PPI data goes with the narrative of “inflation is not that worse → Fed can wait and see → less hawkish than expected + overall economy (PMI) strong → bullish view on stock market”.
NQ 1D
NQ 4h
Yesterday (2026-08-12), before CPI, the probability were 50% 50% → now more probability of holding in September → great for economic growth [SPX, NQ] )
Globally a bit weaker.
| Indicator | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core PPI m/m | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% revised |
| Core PPI y/y | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% |
| PPI m/m | 0.0% | 0.2% | -0.1% revised |
| PPI y/y | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% |
USDCAD 4h
NQ 1h
