PPI Blueprint 2026-08-13

August 13, 2026

PPI expectations:

Indicator	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Core PPI m/m		0.3%	0.2%
PPI m/m		0.2%	-0.3%

Context:

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Leading indicators PMI are strong.

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~~Probability of hold increased from 25% to roughly 50% since Wednesday July 29 2026 (Fed meeting where Warsh has been less hawkish than expected)~~.

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Yesterday (2026-08-12), before CPI, the probability were 50% 50% → now 63% hold, 37% hike → more probability of holding in September → great for economic growth [SPX, NQ] )

If PPI higher than expected:

USDCAD:

Yesterday (CPI) I was watching USDCAD as it has been particularly weak in the last 2 weeks. However, even though CPI printed exactly as expected yesterday, USDCAD already started moving higher. My trade idea was simply to take the rebound due to higher than expected inflation data on USDCAD that, in my opinion, is a bit oversold. Since it already displaced higher since yesterday, it is not a trade that I am considering anymore. Here was my analysis:

“””

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USDCAD has significantly moved lower in the last 2 weeks.

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On the daily chart, we are near fib 50% lvl, already below key lvl at 1.9670 → below Fed June meeting (where Kevin Warsh has been more hawkish than expected, then this idea reversed on July 29).

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It decorrelated since the beginning of the weeks as DXY trends higher and USDCAD lower.

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RSI divergence on 4h

“””

USDCAD 1D

If PPI as expected/mixed:

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Stock market has been really strong in the last 3 weeks.

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We have had decent correction in the last 6-7 trading days

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On a technical analysis, NQ seems strong and ready to go back to ATH

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With as expected PPI data, it won’t change much for the Fed, meaning that it won’t be a data that makes them considering more a hike. → Therefore they will most likely follow a more careful approach and hold in September, which is great for the stock market.

I would be willing to enter this long NQ. However, I want to see momentum to the upside, otherwise I will probably close the trade around breakeven, because the fact that it tried to Break out and lost momentum increases the risk of pulling back and start a bigger correction.

If PPI lower than expected:

Exactly the same as “If PPI as expected/mixed” scenario, but lower PPI data goes with the narrative of “inflation is not that worse → Fed can wait and see → less hawkish than expected + overall economy (PMI) strong → bullish view on stock market”.

NQ 1D

NQ 4h

Yesterday (2026-08-12), before CPI, the probability were 50% 50% → now more probability of holding in September → great for economic growth [SPX, NQ] )