NQ trade long 2026-08-13

August 13, 2026

Here was my analysis for pre-PPI numbers this morning:

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If PPI as expected/mixed:

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Stock market has been really strong in the last 3 weeks.

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We have had decent correction in the last 6-7 trading days

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On a technical analysis, NQ seems strong and ready to go back to ATH

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With as expected PPI data, it won’t change much for the Fed, meaning that it won’t be a data that makes them considering more a hike. → Therefore they will most likely follow a more careful approach and hold in September, which is great for the stock market.

I would be willing to enter this long NQ. However, I want to see momentum to the upside, otherwise I will probably close the trade around breakeven, because the fact that it tried to Break out and lost momentum increases the risk of pulling back and start a bigger correction.

If PPI lower than expected:

Exactly the same as “If PPI as expected/mixed” scenario, but lower PPI data goes with the narrative of “inflation is not that worse → Fed can wait and see → less hawkish than expected + overall economy (PMI) strong → bullish view on stock market”.

NQ 1D

NQ 4h

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My entry:

Entered at market order (aggressive entry, no breakout confirmation at ~29910) after watching price action live and seeing momentum pick up. Half size because this is a shorter-term trade with an aggressive entry (not a full conviction setup with a strong fundamental due to economical release).

When trading, a trader must always assess the risk, not only simply a SL and key lvl to take partial profit, but also what to do when price is lacking momentum or seems to reverse. For some, my entry would be too agressive since I did not wait for a breakout confirmation (~29910). However, I am perfectly satisfied with my entry for the following reasons:

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Bullish bias on NQ already established (see pre-PPI analysis this morning)

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PPI printed as expected → adds probability of a wait-and-see approach from the Fed (less hawkish than expected) → generally constructive for equities

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Price was choppy 8:30–9:30 (post-PPI digestion) → waited to see if momentum materialized at the open

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Momentum confirmed at 9:30 → entered

When I saw momentum building, I assessed that the probability of price testing the breakout level (~29910) was high. At that point I would already be in small profit, and if price started to trade back down I could easily exit around BE. Had I waited for the breakout confirmation, my SL would have been bigger (worse R/R) and the probability of a pullback from the breakout level is the same whether I enter early or after confirmation. Early entry = smaller SL, easier BE exit, better R/R, same odds of price reversing after attempts to BO.

A trader must always assess risk beyond just SL placement (including what to do when price lacks momentum or shows signs of reversal). Since this was not a macro-driven spike (no fundamental change to the thesis), I preferred an entry that allows a clean BE exit if price fails at the breakout level. The SL didn't need to be large here (if momentum were lacking, I would have simply exited and tried the same trade idea another day). No point in entering with a large SL (if momentum were to fade, price could resume the correction that has been underway for 7 trading days, risking a SL even with a wider SL while having a less attractive R/R). If I see we are not going to break out today, I simply cut the trade and retry the same idea another day.

All in all, this is a shorter-term trade with not an economical news that changes fundamental perspective + Breakout a technical level → half risk (0.5R). My entry is more agressive because it is based on momentum picking up before breaking out a key level, but I believe that in this case it is the right thing to do.

Trade management:

Time of writing: 2026-08-13 9:40

We did not originally push higher with the numbers even tho numbers printed ~expected (little lower). I waited for 9:30 opening → then it started pushing higher.

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For NQ, I am closely watching how price reacts at the 29 950$ level. I would prefer this level to breakout before 10:30 as I don’t see why price would take its time to breakout this level if it really is going to breakout this level and start to trade back up to ATH.

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For ES, I am watching whether we can reach ATH and whether or not it continues at that point or not

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For YM, I don’t like the fact that it does not follow to the upside → sign of weakness

Strong momentum so far. First target at 30,325 on NQ (30,382 on Oanda CFD) → 3.81 R/R.

Watching ES carefully, it is already making new ATHs right now. The lack of liquidity typical of August (most traders on vacation → thinner markets) could make price push higher more easily than usual, which would be a tailwind for this trade running further.