Here was my analysis for pre-PPI numbers this morning:

“””

If PPI as expected/mixed:

If PPI lower than expected:

Exactly the same as “If PPI as expected/mixed” scenario, but lower PPI data goes with the narrative of “inflation is not that worse → Fed can wait and see → less hawkish than expected + overall economy (PMI) strong → bullish view on stock market”.

NQ 1D

NQ 4h

“””

My entry:

Entered at market order (aggressive entry, no breakout confirmation at ~29910) after watching price action live and seeing momentum pick up. Half size because this is a shorter-term trade with an aggressive entry (not a full conviction setup with a strong fundamental due to economical release).

When trading, a trader must always assess the risk, not only simply a SL and key lvl to take partial profit, but also what to do when price is lacking momentum or seems to reverse. For some, my entry would be too agressive since I did not wait for a breakout confirmation (~29910). However, I am perfectly satisfied with my entry for the following reasons:

When I saw momentum building, I assessed that the probability of price testing the breakout level (~29910) was high. At that point I would already be in small profit, and if price started to trade back down I could easily exit around BE. Had I waited for the breakout confirmation, my SL would have been bigger (worse R/R) and the probability of a pullback from the breakout level is the same whether I enter early or after confirmation. Early entry = smaller SL, easier BE exit, better R/R, same odds of price reversing after attempts to BO.

A trader must always assess risk beyond just SL placement (including what to do when price lacks momentum or shows signs of reversal). Since this was not a macro-driven spike (no fundamental change to the thesis), I preferred an entry that allows a clean BE exit if price fails at the breakout level. The SL didn't need to be large here (if momentum were lacking, I would have simply exited and tried the same trade idea another day). No point in entering with a large SL (if momentum were to fade, price could resume the correction that has been underway for 7 trading days, risking a SL even with a wider SL while having a less attractive R/R). If I see we are not going to break out today, I simply cut the trade and retry the same idea another day.

All in all, this is a shorter-term trade with not an economical news that changes fundamental perspective + Breakout a technical level → half risk (0.5R). My entry is more agressive because it is based on momentum picking up before breaking out a key level, but I believe that in this case it is the right thing to do.

Trade management:

Time of writing: 2026-08-13 9:40

We did not originally push higher with the numbers even tho numbers printed ~expected (little lower). I waited for 9:30 opening → then it started pushing higher.

Strong momentum so far. First target at 30,325 on NQ (30,382 on Oanda CFD) → 3.81 R/R.

Watching ES carefully, it is already making new ATHs right now. The lack of liquidity typical of August (most traders on vacation → thinner markets) could make price push higher more easily than usual, which would be a tailwind for this trade running further.

Time of writing: 2026-08-14 9:34

I brainstormed a lot this morning and here is what I came up with:

Time of writing: 2026-08-18 21:57

Trade closed at -0.15 R.

Saturday at the open, with NQ and USOIL both gapping up, I decided to reduce my exposure and closed 25% of my position (already only a 0.5% risk position) due to the geopolitical tension in the Middle East and the risk of escalation. I didn't want to see this trade, which was already in good open profit, reverse and turn into a -0.5% loss.

I did benefit from closing it with the Sunday gap up at the open, but honestly I should have taken this partial profit Friday before the close instead of waiting that was the only real risk management mistake on my end.

I decided not to move my SL, because from a technical standpoint it was the level that invalidates my trade idea, and moving it to BE would have increased the risk of getting stopped out on a normal pullback before price continued higher without me. I was also more comfortable with this plan because the 25% I took off around 1:1.7RR on Sunday meant my worst case was now -0.15%, well below the initial 0.5% risk.

All in all, I regret nothing about this trade and would take it every time:

Post analysis

Time of writing 2026-08-23 17:31

NQ 1d

NQ 4h

ES 1d

ES 4h

Time of writing: 2026-08-25 18:22

Here is my Oanda demo account statement.

It was my third trade this year.

I am now 6.59% up this year.