NFP Blueprint Post - 2026-08-07

August 7, 2026

NFP Blueprint

August 07, 2026

Distribution forecast

NFP

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Range of estimates: 10K – 140K

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Most clustered: 70K – 80K

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Consensus: 80K

Unemployment Rate

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4.1% → 1%

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4.2% → 56% — consensus

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4.3% → 43%

Average Hourly Earnings M/M

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0.2% → 11%

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0.3% → 89% — consensus

Context

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Last week's FOMC: 0 cut / 9 hold / 3 hike. More hawkish than the market's 66% hold / 33% hike pricing → equities surprised positively, SPX +6% over 6 trading days

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FedWatchtool (September): 45% hold / 54% hike

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US–Iran deal partially priced in by the market, but publicly both sides still have unmatched demands; a compromise is possible but nothing concrete yet

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Key insight: inflation remains the dominant variable — even strong labor data alone is unlikely to push the Fed to hike if next week's CPI comes in soft

If NFP near or > 140K:

This would give hold-voting members more confidence to hike in September. Since current forecasts are really 50/50, I believe this scenario would affect probabilities but not significantly, if next week's inflation print comes in lower than expected they won't hike on labor alone. Inflation is really the most important data to watch right now.

I don't have a trade for this scenario, but my forecast is that it could send DXY toward the clustering of key levels around 100.3.

DXY 1D

If NFP near estimates 80K:

This would be no surprise. The market would likely wait for next week's inflation data, which is really what it's watching to assess what the Fed will do in September.

No trade opportunity expect choppy, directionless price action until CPI.

If NFP near or < 10K:

This would be the most interesting scenario. This certainly would not be data that encourages the 9 hold-voting members to want to hike in September. However, we will have another jobs print in the first week of September which might add confidence back (but again, CPI has to come out high for a hike to be on the table).

I won't trade this scenario either. I am watching EUR/USD, which is trading right at a medium/long-term trendline, and a weak NFP could be the catalyst to break it higher. The next logical target would be the level we were trading at before the June 17 FOMC Rate Decision (the first press conference of Kevin Warsh when he surprised the market with his hawkish comments) highlighted by the gray box. However, I don't like the fact that we didn't have a deeper correction this week and the R/R on this setup doesn't satisfy me. If I were to enter that trade, I would not want to hold this kind of position over the weekend given current geopolitical risk anyway, especially if we haven't moved significantly in my direction before market close.

Post NFP:

	Actual	Expected	Last
NFP	-23K	80K	20K (revised from 57K)
Unemployment Rate	4.1%	4.2%	4.2%
Avg. Hourly Earning MoM	0.1%	0.3%	0.3%

NFP came in way below expectations, with a mixed signal from the unemployment rate which printed better than expected.

DXY plunged -0.40% on the news.

However, I don't think we will break the 99.400 support level on DXY before market close. Plus, CPI next week is what will really drive the next leg.

Therefore, if I were in the EUR/USD long trade, I would move the position near breakeven and wait until before market close to decide whether to hold over the weekend or close it.

DXY 1D

DXY 4H (we can see the blue support lvl at ~99.400)

EURUSD 4H ( I am not in that trade, but if I were, I would be at BE)