NFP Blueprint - 2026-08-07

This would give hold-voting members more confidence to hike in September. Since current forecasts are really 50/50, I believe this scenario would affect probabilities but not significantly, if next week's inflation print comes in lower than expected they won't hike on labor alone. Inflation is really the most important data to watch right now.

I don't have a trade for this scenario, but my forecast is that it could send DXY toward the clustering of key levels around 100.3.

DXY 1D

This would be no surprise. The market would likely wait for next week's inflation data, which is really what it's watching to assess what the Fed will do in September.

No trade opportunity expect choppy, directionless price action until CPI.

This would be the most interesting scenario. This certainly would not be data that encourages the 9 hold-voting members to want to hike in September. However, we will have another jobs print in the first week of September which might add confidence back (but again, CPI has to come out high for a hike to be on the table).

I won't trade this scenario either. I am watching EUR/USD, which is trading right at a medium/long-term trendline, and a weak NFP could be the catalyst to break it higher. The next logical target would be the level we were trading at before the June 17 FOMC Rate Decision (the first press conference of Kevin Warsh when he surprised the market with his hawkish comments) highlighted by the gray box. However, I don't like the fact that we didn't have a deeper correction this week and the R/R on this setup doesn't satisfy me. If I were to enter that trade, I would not want to hold this kind of position over the weekend given current geopolitical risk anyway, especially if we haven't moved significantly in my direction before market close.