CPI Blueprint - post - 2026-08-12

August 12, 2026

CPI expectations:

Context:

•

Leading indicators PMI are strong.

•

robability of hold increased from 25% to roughly 50% since Wednesday July 29 2026 (Fed meeting where Warsh has been less hawkish than expected).

•

USOIL prices currently 5.41% above July avg (July avg close = $79.22, Tuesday August 11 closing price = 83.51) → inflationary for august

What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI? - https://investinglive.com/news/what-is-the-distribution-of-forecasts-for-the-us-cpi-0/

CPI Y/Y

•

3.6% (2%)

•

3.5% (8%)

•

3.4% (65%) - consensus

•

3.3% (25%)

CPI M/M

•

0.3% (2%)

•

0.2% (32%)

•

0.1% (58%) - consensus

•

0.0% (8%)

Core CPI Y/Y

•

2.8% (2%)

•

2.6% (4%)

•

2.5% (82%) - consensus

•

2.4% (12%)

Core CPI M/M

•

0.3% (16%)

•

0.2% (77%) - consensus

•

0.1% (6%)

•

0.0% (1%)

If CPI higher than expected:

USDCAD:

•

USDCAD has significantly moved lower in the last 2 weeks.

•

On the daily chart, we are near fib 50% lvl, already below key lvl at 1.9670 → below Fed June meeting (where Kevin Warsh has been more hawkish than expected, then this idea reversed on July 29).

•

It decorrelated since the beginning of the weeks as DXY trends higher and USDCAD lower.

•

RSI divergence on 4h

USDCAD 1D

If CPI as expected/mixed:

NQ (but will depend on geopolitical)

If CPI lower than expected:

Would increase probability that fed wont feel rushed to hike → potentially less pressure on stock market than what is currently priced-in → positive for stock market.

ES is already elevated and I would have preferred a deeper correction in the beginning of the week.

NQ still has ~3.5% to move higher before new ATH. Correction is decent.

USDCAD probability of 4 consecutive down close candle

USOIL stats:

CPI YoY

ISM Manufacturing PMI

ISM Services PMI

Fed probabilities for September meeting

Post CPI

Written at 9:11 August 12 2026

Indicator	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Core CPI m/m	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
Core CPI y/y	2.5%	2.5%	2.6%
CPI m/m	0.1%	0.1%	-0.4%
CPI y/y	3.4%	3.4%	3.5%

CPI printed exactly as expected.

USDCAD is dropping even more → I will keep an eye on this pair for tomorrow PPI data (if we have hotter PPI = more inflation, I would have the same long idea)

I have not entered NQ since CPI came as expected.

However, the question is “who would want to sell or take profit now? considering that the fed has recently been less hawkish than expected, CPI printed exactly as expected (won’t make Fed more hawkish), still has +3.5% before ATH, looks like it will breakout to the upside”.

For those reasons, I believe that NQ has decent probability (50% probability) to break the 29 900 lvl today, but momentum is key here as we are waiting for PPI tomorrow (Thursday August 13). NYSE open at 9:30 have to give momentum confirmation that it will breakout today. Else: wait until tomorrow PPI data (It would not make sense to enter here, loose momentum, range around BE until tomorrow, then take the chance of PPI to print higher than expected and take a loss).