CPI Blueprint 2026-08-12

August 12, 2026

CPI expectations:

Context:

•

Leading indicators PMI are strong.

•

robability of hold increased from 25% to roughly 50% since Wednesday July 29 2026 (Fed meeting where Warsh has been less hawkish than expected).

•

USOIL prices currently 5.41% above July avg (July avg close = $79.22, Tuesday August 11 closing price = 83.51) → inflationary for august

What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI? - https://investinglive.com/news/what-is-the-distribution-of-forecasts-for-the-us-cpi-0/

CPI Y/Y

•

3.6% (2%)

•

3.5% (8%)

•

3.4% (65%) - consensus

•

3.3% (25%)

CPI M/M

•

0.3% (2%)

•

0.2% (32%)

•

0.1% (58%) - consensus

•

0.0% (8%)

Core CPI Y/Y

•

2.8% (2%)

•

2.6% (4%)

•

2.5% (82%) - consensus

•

2.4% (12%)

Core CPI M/M

•

0.3% (16%)

•

0.2% (77%) - consensus

•

0.1% (6%)

•

0.0% (1%)

If CPI higher than expected:

USDCAD:

•

USDCAD has significantly moved lower in the last 2 weeks.

•

On the daily chart, we are near fib 50% lvl, already below key lvl at 1.9670 → below Fed June meeting (where Kevin Warsh has been more hawkish than expected, then this idea reversed on July 29).

•

It decorrelated since the beginning of the weeks as DXY trends higher and USDCAD lower.

•

RSI divergence on 4h

USDCAD 1D

If CPI as expected/mixed:

NQ (but will depend on geopolitical)

If CPI lower than expected:

Would increase probability that fed wont feel rushed to hike → potentially less pressure on stock market than what is currently priced-in → positive for stock market.

ES is already elevated and I would have preferred a deeper correction in the beginning of the week.

NQ still has ~3.5% to move higher before new ATH. Correction is decent.

USDCAD probability of 4 consecutive down close candle

USOIL stats:

CPI YoY

ISM Manufacturing PMI

ISM Services PMI

Fed probabilities for September meeting