AUDCAD thesis — Long
June 15, 2026 — Macro thesis
•Iran–US deal announced → risk-on environment
•Oil ▼ -5% on supply normalization — CAD headwind
•Gold ▲ +3.5% intraday — AUD tailwind (AU–gold correlation positive)
Yield spread confirmation
•AUD/CAD already +~0.5% overnight before spreads moved
•AU–CA yield spread: 1.727% → 1.783% (+3.2% relative) — now confirming direction
•FX catching up to a widening differential
•Created a range after overnight rally (near BO)
•Favorable R/R at current entry
| |
|---|
| Oil (WTI) | −5.0% |
| Gold | +3.5% |
| Yield spread Δ | +3.2% |
